Don’t underestimate Israel’s military option for Iran
Israel Air Force Cobra Tzefa
Only one nation has called for a military strike against Iran and that, we learned from Wikileaks, is Saudi Arabia. Still, the main focus of media attention has been on the prospect that Israel will attack Iran because it is the one country the Iranians have threatened with destruction and Israel’s leaders have declared a nuclear Iran an existential threat.
Many analysts argue that Israel lacks the military capability to stop the Iranian nuclear program for more than a few years and assert that the cost of any attack will exceed the benefit. This is the conventional wisdom, but it is just that, conventional, and Israel has repeatedly proved that it has the daring and creativity to disprove the skeptics.
Consider Israel’s history. American officials have been consistently wrong about Israel’s capabilities. They did not expect Israel to survive the Arab invasion of 1948. In the early 1950s, the Arabs were seen as strategic allies, but, by the end of the decade, Israel was acknowledged as the only pro-Western power in the region.
In 1967, no one anticipated that Israel would surprise their neighbors and destroy their air forces on the ground.
In 1976, Israel shocked the world when it rescued 102 hostages in Entebbe.
In 1981, Israel flew through Arab air space and destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor.
In 2007, an Israeli raid destroyed a suspected Syrian nuclear facility.
Now Israel’s capabilities are again being doubted. Only a handful of Israelis are privy to plans that could be far more audacious and innovative than critics imagine. As Eitan Ben-Eliyahu, who flew a fighter escort on the raid on Iraq told the Jerusalem Report, “you can introduce dozens of improvisations and creative ideas and get much more out of the basic conditions than would seem possible at face value.”
Assuming Israel can launch an effective strike, what about the argument that it will only set Iran back a few years?
Maybe the strike will succeed in destroying more of the program than the naysayers believe. But let’s say that it doesn’t. This does not mean that Iran will be able to rebuild their program quickly, if at all. Sure, they will still have the knowledge, but it took them about 20 years to get to where they are today.
They will also face much greater international scrutiny.
The world kept its head in the sand for years, and the International Atomic Energy Agency acted like the three blind mice.
