“This story isn’t about a big box music chain, but how a small number of citizens can subvert every product made, every job offered, and every purchase decision – and how we can regain control of our lives, starting with the musical instrument industry.”
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It is the middle of the night between Friday and Saturday, and I am thinking about Guitar Center.
If the above sentence appears strange to you, we are in the same boat. I do not know how bizarre and random your life appears to you, but mine is definitely some sort of mysterious fractal. About four months ago, I was elected by the Internet to the position of United Nations Ambassador to Guitar Center. I made a simple, off hand comment about how I was surprised that the company was doing poorly despite all of the gear I bought there, and then the two separate streams of my life – music and business analysis – slammed together. Thousands of people began conflating my life as a somewhat decent bassist with my expertise in strategic forecasting. Now, with every development in the musical instrument industry, I have a flurry of emails and phonecalls from all levels of the business. It is surprising, fun, and as I now discover, significant of a much larger story
I never paid too much attention to the musical instrument (MI) business in my profession of strategic analysis; it simply does not represent enough cash flow to have significance in national economies. For example, the global MI industry is around $13 billion a year. I used to do high-level analysis of the market for antipsychotic medication, something most people know nothing about, which has the same annual sales revenue in the US alone. My only interest in musical instruments was for pleasure, so when I was suddenly elected The People’s Analyst of the Industry, (current salary: $0) I had a lot of catching up to do.
After much deliberation, I see the MI industry as a microcosm of every other problem in the global economy. To borrow from the analysis of Thomas Piketty in his brilliant “Capital in the 21st Century,” the monied interests of society have expanded their reach such that they can concentrate and dominate almost every area of human endeavor, and the deleterious effects are now evident to all.
In the end, this story isn’t about a big box music chain, but how a small number of citizens can subvert every product made, every job offered, and every purchase decision – and how we can regain control of our lives, starting with the musical instrument industry.
News on Guitar Center’s finances – and what it means
If you are a regular reader you know that I have been keeping close tabs on the finances of the Westlake, CA-based retail behemoth. Had their executives never made visits to my Facebook page, I never would have thought that it was worth any research, but my experience is that if you see unusually emotional behavior from technocrats, a bigger story lurks. Confirming my instincts, a perfunctory analysis of the company’s finances showed gargantuan debt structure and a liquidity crisis (also known as being broke.) Because the company is/was owned by a holding company created by private equity firm Bain Capital, it was impossible for me to deduce exactly the structure of their ownership and debt covenants. To summarize the story for those who don’t have a taste for corporate finance, just imagine you had $65,000 in credit card debt financed at a crappy rate, and that you made around $80,000 a year. Things on the horizon would look bleak, and you would be forced to either change your lifestyle or declare bankruptcy and get a fresh start. As such, irrespective of the contradictions inherent in the big box model and the general draining of wealth from their supposed middle class customers, I figured that these guys would be lucky to make it a few more months.